CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2016-07-17T12:48:00-CME-001)

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2016 Jul 19 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels due to a C4 flare from Region 2565
(N05W21, Cko/beta) at 18/0823 UTC. This region also produced a B6 flare
at 18/1839 UTC, which was the only other notable flare during the
period. Both Regions 2565 and 2567 (N05W11, Dki/beta) experienced slight
growth in the peripheral spots, while Region 2569 exhibited slight
growth in both the leader and trailer spots. Region 2566 (N10W25,
Axx/alpha) had spots reemerge during the period, but remained a
magnetically simple spot group.

Analysis from the faint, asymmetric halo CME from 17 July suggested a
possible impact from the slow moving plasma cloud sometime early on 21
Jul. Speeds analyzed indicated a relatively slow moving CME,
approximately 450 km/s, with anticipated timing to coincide with the
arrival of the coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). No new
Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to reach low levels through the period (19-21
Jul) with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) due to
flare potential from Regions 2565 and 2567, as well as the continued
growth of Region 2569.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with
a peak flux of 6,229 pfu observed at 18/1605 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels on day one and early on day two (19-20 Jul) in response to
elevated wind speeds from CH HSS activity. On day two, electron flux
levels are expected to return to normal levels following a
redistribution of particles due to the arrival of the anticipated CME.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at
background levels for the forecast period (19-21 Jul).


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected a
return to ambient conditions. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased
through the period from about 460 km/s to near 360 km/s. Total magnetic
field strength ranged between 2-5 nT, while the Bz component fluctuated
between +/-3 nT. The phi angle was in a predominately positive sector
throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at ambient levels on day
one and early on day two (19-20 Jul). Enhanced conditions are
expected early on day two and into day three (21 Jul) as a negative
polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position, as well as the
anticipated arrival of the 17 Jul CME.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels through
the end of day one (19 Jul). Quiet to unsettled conditions are then
expected, with active periods likely on day two (20 Jul), due to effects
from a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS. Active levels,
with a slight chance for G1 (minor) storm conditions are possible early
on day three (21 Jul) with the arrival of the anticipated CME,
combined with the CH HSS effects, before beginning to taper off near the
end of the period.

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